Party switching and limits of political change in the Mexican congress (2018-2024)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of legislative party-switching on the reelection prospects of deputies and senators in Mexico during the period 2018-2024. Despite the common perception that changing political affiliation might increase reelection opportunities, results obtained through a binomial logistic regression model suggest otherwise. Party-switching does not significantly affect these probabilities. In contrast, factors such as legislative chamber, position on the electoral formula, and party loyalty are more influential. These findings provide a valuable case study within the Mexican context, illustrating how the political and electoral system shapes legislative behavior and offering new perspectives for understanding this phenomenon in comparative contexts.