Predictors of party identification in Peru (1995-2018): an exploratory analysis
Authors
-
Yasmin Azucena Calmet Ipince
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5933-0088
-
Gregorio Unbehaun Leal da Silva
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4603-9803
Download
Abstract
This paper is an exploratory study, that seeks to stablish some analytical parameters, for an ongoing investigation schedule of the political cleavage in Peru. The goal is to analyze how the cleavages have contributed to the relationship between the Peruvian voters and the parties’ blocks since 1995 until 2018. For that, we used data from the World Values Survey (WVS) and data reduction techniques, which facilitated the identification of the existing divisions amongst the Peruvian electorate. This paper shows that there is a great oscillation in the declared votes for these block parties, which could be explained by the Peruvian political instability, hindering the consolidation of several Partisan identities.
Keywords:
Political Cleavages , Voters , Party identity , Peru , Peruvian PoliticReferences
Ansolabehere, S., Rodden, J. & Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review, Vol. 102, Nº 2, pp. 215–232. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055408080210
Barrera, O., Leiva, A., Martínez-Toledano, C. & Zúñiga-Cordero, A. (2021). Social Inequalities, Identity, and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, 1952–2019. In Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv209xnfn.18
Bartolini, S. & Mair, P.r (1990). Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability. Cambridge University Press: New York.
Bonilla, C., Carlin, R., Love, G. & Méndez, E. (2011). Social or political cleavages? A spatial analysis of the party system in post-authoritarian Chile. Public Choice, Vol. 146, Nº 1/2, pp. 9-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9580-2
Bornschier, S. (2019). Historical polarization and representation in South American party systems, 1900-1990. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, Nº. 1, pp. 153-179. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000387
Brown, T. (2006). Confirmatory factor analysis for applied research. New York: The Guilford Press.
Camacho, G. & Sosa-Villagarcia, P. (2021). Una Democracia Asediada por Sus Elites. en El Profe: Cómo Pedro Castillo se Convirtió en presidente y Qué Pasará a Continuación. Lima: Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.
Chhibber, P. K. & Verma, R. (2018). Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190623876.001.0001
Comellas, J. M. & TORCAL, M. (2023). Ideological identity, issue-based ideology and bipolar affective polarization in multiparty systems: The cases of Argentina, Chile, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Electoral Studies, Vol. 83, 102615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102615
Dalton, R. J., Flanagan, S. E. & Beck, P. A. (1984). Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? Princeton/ New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Dalton, R. J. (2018) Political realignment: economics, culture, and electoral change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Damasio, B. (2012). Uso da análise fatorial exploratória em psicologia. Aval. psicol. (online), Vol. 11, Nº 2, pp. 213-228. Disponível em: Uso da análise fatorial exploratória em psicologia (bvsalud.org)
Damen, M. (2013). Political Alignments and Cleavages. The Wiley-Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social and Political Movements: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Deegan-Krause, K. (2007). New Dimensions of Political Cleavage. en The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.
Deegan-Krause, K. (2013). “Full and Partial Cleavages” en Sten Berglund, Joakim Ekman, Kevin Deegan-Krause e Terje Knutsen (compiladores). The Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe (3ª ed). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Dolezal, M. (2022). ‘Social and Political Cleavages and Political Participation’, en Marco Giugni e Maria Grasso (compiladores), The Oxford Handbook of Political Participation. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198861126.013.28
Fabrigar, L. R., Wegener, D. T., Maccallum, R. C. & Strahan, E. J. (1999). Evaluating the use of exploratory factor analysis in psychological research. Psychological Methods, Vol. 4, Nº. 3, pp. 272–299. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/1082-989X.4.3.272
Feldman, S. & Johnson, C. (2014). Understanding the determinants of political ideology: Implications of structural complexity. Political Psychology, Vol. 35, Nº 3, pp. 337–358. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12055
Figuereido, D. B. & Silva, J. A. (2010). Visão além do alcance: uma introdução à análise fatorial. Opinião Pública, Campinas, Vol. 16, Nº. 1, pp. 160-185. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000100007
Gimenes, E. (2016). Partidarismo e desalinhamento partidário na América Latina: uma análise comparada. São Paulo: Editora Unesp.
Haerpfer, C., Inglehart, R., Moreno, A., Welzel, C., Kizilova, K., Diez-Medrano, J., Lagos, M., Norris, P., Ponarin, E. & Punaren, B. (compiladores.). (2022). World Values Survey: Round Seven - Country-Pooled Datafile Version 5.0. Madrid, Spain & Vienna, Austria: JD Systems Institute & WVSA Secretariat. https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSContents.jsp
Hair, J. F. Black, W. C., Babin, B. J. et al. (2009). Análise multivariada de dados (6ª ed). Porto Alegre: Bookman.Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Inglehart, R., Welzel, C. (2009). Modernização, mudança cultural e democracia:a sequência do desenvolvimento humano. São Paulo:
Francis.Koenker, R. (2019). “Quantile Regression” em R: A Vignette. 2019. https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/quantreg/vignettes/rq.pdf
Kitschelt, H. (1994). The Transformation of European Social Democracy. Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511622014
Laros, J. (2005). O Uso da Análise Fatorial: Algumas Diretrizes para Pesquisadores. Análise fatorial para pesquisadores, LabPAM Saber e Tecnologia, Brasília, pp. 163-193.
Lipset, S. M., Rokkan, S. (1990). “Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments”, en Peter Mair (compiladores). The West European Party System, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupu, N. (2016). Party brands in crisis: partisanship, brand dilution, and the breakdown of political parties in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Maldonado, A. (2013). Racionalidad y emotividad en las elecciones peruanas: una propuesta de investigación. Revista Argumentos, Edición N° 1, Marzo 2013. Disponible en https://argumentos-historico.iep.org.pe/articulos/racionalidad-y-emotividad-en-las-elecciones-peruanas-una-propuesta-de-investigacion/ ISSN 2076-7722
Marino, P. R. (2019). Vueltas y revueltas de la derecha peruana en el siglo XXI. Estudios Sociales del Estado, Vol. 5, Nº. 9, pp. 24-54.
Moreno, A. (2019). Political Cleavages: Issues, Parties and the Consolidation of Democracy. London: Routledge.
Oshri, O., Yair, O. & Huddy, L. (2021). The Importance of Attachment to an Ideological Group in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from Israel. Party Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688211044475
Rosales, D.; Guillén, H. (2022). Las emociones y su relación con el voto en las elecciones peruanas del 2021. https://www.redalyc.org/journal/6723/672371222008/672371222008.pdf
Silva, G.U.L. da. (2021). Análise Fatorial Confirmatória ou Análise dos Componentes Principais? Uma comparação com dados de opinião pública do Brasil. Caderno Eletrônico de Ciências Sociais, Vol. 9, Nº 1, pp. 112-138. https://doi.org/10.47456/cadecs.v9i1.37156
Silva, G. U. L. da. (2022). Antes do Poder: Extrema-Direita Tinha Raízes no Pensamento de Brasileiros e Poloneses. Profanações, Vol. 9, pp. 325–344. https://doi.org/10.24302/prof.v9.4087
Tabachnick, B. G., Fidell, L. S. & Ullman, J. B. (2007). Using multivariate statistics. Boston, MA: Pearson.Torcal, M. & Mainwaring, S. (2003). The political recrafting of social bases of party competition: Chile, 1973-95. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 33, Nº 1, pp. 55–84. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4092268
Treier, S. & Sunshine, D. (2009). The nature of political ideology in the contemporary electorate. Vol. 73, Nº 4, pp. 679-703. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfp067
Twitter